Transparent performance

ApexPredict public track record

Every settled matchday is disclosed after the evaluation worker finishes: shortlist wins, misses, abstentions, league splits, and every modelled market. No outcome is hidden by a subscription.

Matchday report

What landed, what missed, and what Apex left alone

This report is rebuilt from the evaluation worker's settled postmortems. It measures the exact market shortlisted for each match and separately audits every other modelled angle.

No settled matchday report is available for this date.

The page never substitutes demo results. A report appears after completed fixtures have been processed by the evaluation worker.

Long-term 1X2 ledger

Original match-result model performance

This section remains separate from the reliability shortlist. It evaluates the original EPL 1X2 probability distribution, scoring quality, and publication-time odds.

Published

Pending

Settled

Wins / losses

0 / 1

Accuracy

Average Brier

0.657

Average log loss

2.268

Average odds

—

Calibration gap

10.98 pts

Maximum losing streak

Voided

Unit P/L

Unavailable

ROI

Unavailable

Method and eligibility

Accuracy is wins divided by settled wins plus losses. Pending and void results are excluded. Brier score and log loss evaluate the original probability distribution; lower is better. The calibration gap compares average recorded confidence with observed accuracy. ROI and unit profit/loss are calculated only when every eligible settled record has immutable publication-time decimal odds; later prices are never substituted.

ROI eligibility: unavailable because at least one record lacks publication-time odds · window: all time · sample 22 Aug 2026, 12:21 to 28 Aug 2026, 23:40 · models Apex Hybrid@1.1.0

Immutable public ledger

Latest post-kickoff records

Up to 20, newest first

Premier League · superseded

Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester City

CORRECT

Original call: Abstained · 25%
Published: 28 Aug 2026, 05:44
Settled: 28 Aug 2026, 22:08
Model: Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
Brier / log loss: 0.134 / 0.547
Publication odds: 1xBet: away 1.74 · 1xBet: draw 4.22 · 1xBet: home 4.93 · Bet365: away 1.67 · Bet365: draw 3.90 · Bet365: home 5.00 · BetVictor: away 1.67 · BetVictor: draw 4.10 · BetVictor: home 4.80 · Betano: away 1.70 · Betano: draw 4.15 · Betano: home 5.10 · Betfair: away 1.67 · Betfair: draw 4.00 · Betfair: home 5.00 · Dafabet: away 1.66 · Dafabet: draw 4.20 · Dafabet: home 5.00 · Marathonbet: away 1.71 · Marathonbet: draw 4.15 · Marathonbet: home 4.85 · Pinnacle: away 1.69 · Pinnacle: draw 4.21 · Pinnacle: home 4.77 · SBO: away 1.63 · SBO: draw 3.62 · SBO: home 4.22 · Superbet: away 1.67 · Superbet: draw 4.15 · Superbet: home 4.90 · Unibet: away 1.65 · Unibet: draw 4.10 · Unibet: home 5.00 · William Hill: away 1.67 · William Hill: draw 3.90 · William Hill: home 4.60

Changed: system reforecast — Superseded before kickoff by a materially changed model output. · 28 Aug 2026, 06:51

Premier League · superseded

Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester City

CORRECT

Original call: Abstained · 25%
Published: 27 Aug 2026, 12:47
Settled: 28 Aug 2026, 22:08
Model: Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
Brier / log loss