Matches in scope
7
Completed or cancelled fixtures covered by this report.
Transparent performance
ApexPredict public track record
Every settled matchday is disclosed after the evaluation worker finishes: shortlist wins, misses, abstentions, league splits, and every modelled market. No outcome is hidden by a subscription.
Matchday report
What landed, what missed, and what Apex left alone
This report is rebuilt from the evaluation worker's settled postmortems. It measures the exact market shortlisted for each match and separately audits every other modelled angle.
Friday, 28 August 2026 · Africa/Lagos
7 matches were in scope. 2 matches received a shortlist pick: 2 landed and 0 missed, a 100% hit rate. 4 matches were abstained from, and 1 had no public postmortem.
Shortlist picks
2
Matches where one market cleared every gate.
Landed
2
The shortlisted condition occurred.
Missed
0
The shortlisted condition did not occur.
Abstained
4
No market was strong enough to shortlist.
Not analyzed
1
Completed fixtures missing a public prediction postmortem.
Shortlist hit rate
100%
Landed ÷ landed plus missed; abstentions and voids excluded.
Selected performance
Shortlisted markets
Only the one market Apex actually selected for each match.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
All-option audit
Every modelled market
This recreates reports such as “team to score landed 30 of 37.” These were evaluated options, not necessarily customer shortlist picks.
| Market | Landed | Missed | Sample | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 5 | 1 | 6 | 83.3% |
| Team to score | 5 | 1 | 6 | 83.3% |
| Double chance | 4 | 2 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Both teams to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 50% |
League view
Matchday results by competition
A league can have a strong day without proving a lasting trend. Sample sizes remain visible.
| Group | Picks | Landed | Missed | Abstained | Not analyzed | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Premier League | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% |
| Bundesliga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Championship | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
| La Liga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Serie A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
Every reviewed match
Match-by-match postmortems
La LigaNot analyzed
Racing Santander
3–2Full time
Elche
Coverage gap
No public prediction postmortem exists for this fixture.
No public prediction postmortem was produced for this completed fixture.
All modelled angles (0)
Review unavailable
BundesligaNo selection / abstained
Bayern München
5–1Full time
VfB Stuttgart
Apex decision
No market cleared the reliability gate.
Bayern München won 5-1. The published 1X2 call landed; the 5-1 result broadly matched the expected-goals process.
Long-term 1X2 ledger
Original match-result model performance
This section remains separate from the reliability shortlist. It evaluates the original EPL 1X2 probability distribution, scoring quality, and publication-time odds.
Published
5
Pending
4
Settled
1
Wins / losses
0 / 1
Accuracy
0%
Average Brier
0.657
Average log loss
2.268
Average odds
—
Calibration gap
10.98 pts
Maximum losing streak
1
Voided
0
Unit P/L
Unavailable
ROI
Unavailable
Method and eligibility
Accuracy is wins divided by settled wins plus losses. Pending and void results are excluded. Brier score and log loss evaluate the original probability distribution; lower is better. The calibration gap compares average recorded confidence with observed accuracy. ROI and unit profit/loss are calculated only when every eligible settled record has immutable publication-time decimal odds; later prices are never substituted.
ROI eligibility: unavailable because at least one record lacks publication-time odds · window: 7d · sample 22 Aug 2026, 12:21 to 28 Aug 2026, 23:40 · models Apex Hybrid@1.1.0
Immutable public ledger
Latest post-kickoff records
Premier League · superseded
Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester City
- Original call
- Abstained · 25%
- Published
- 28 Aug 2026, 05:44
- Settled
- 28 Aug 2026, 22:08
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
- 0.134 / 0.547
- Publication odds
- 1xBet: away 1.74 · 1xBet: draw 4.22 · 1xBet: home 4.93 · Bet365: away 1.67 · Bet365: draw 3.90 · Bet365: home 5.00 · BetVictor: away 1.67 · BetVictor: draw 4.10 · BetVictor: home 4.80 · Betano: away 1.70 · Betano: draw 4.15 · Betano: home 5.10 · Betfair: away 1.67 · Betfair: draw 4.00 · Betfair: home 5.00 · Dafabet: away 1.66 · Dafabet: draw 4.20 · Dafabet: home 5.00 · Marathonbet: away 1.71 · Marathonbet: draw 4.15 · Marathonbet: home 4.85 · Pinnacle: away 1.69 · Pinnacle: draw 4.21 · Pinnacle: home 4.77 · SBO: away 1.63 · SBO: draw 3.62 · SBO: home 4.22 · Superbet: away 1.67 · Superbet: draw 4.15 · Superbet: home 4.90 · Unibet: away 1.65 · Unibet: draw 4.10 · Unibet: home 5.00 · William Hill: away 1.67 · William Hill: draw 3.90 · William Hill: home 4.60
Changed: system reforecast — Superseded before kickoff by a materially changed model output. · 28 Aug 2026, 06:51
Premier League · superseded
Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester City
- Original call
- Abstained · 25%
- Published
- 27 Aug 2026, 12:47
- Settled
- 28 Aug 2026, 22:08
- Model
- Apex Hybrid v1.1.0
- Brier / log loss
